The Startup Graveyard Calculator

Are You Building a Unicorn or Digging a Grave? The Startup Graveyard Calculator Predicts Your Fate

They say 90% of startups fail.

It’s the statistic every founder knows, but every founder ignores. "That's for other people," we tell ourselves. "My idea is different. My team is different."

But the Graveyard doesn't care about your pitch deck. It cares about math.

Startups don't die from "bad luck." They die from suicide. They run out of cash. They build things nobody wants. They fight with their co-founders until the company implodes.

Most founders are so busy "crushing it" that they don't see the toe tag on their own business until the bank account hits $0.

We built the Startup Graveyard Calculator (above) to be your reality check. It’s a pre-mortem tool designed to calculate your Probability of Failure based on the cold, hard metrics that kill companies.

The 3 Causes of Death (According to Data)

Why do startups actually fail? CB Insights analyzed 101 post-mortems, and the results are brutal.

1. "No Market Need" (42%) This is the silent killer. You built a solution looking for a problem.

• The Calculator: If you check "Pre-Revenue > 2 Years" or "High Churn," your risk skyrockets. If people aren't paying, you don't have a business; you have a hobby.

2. "Ran Out of Cash" (29%) This is the most common cause of death.

• The Calculator: It tracks your Runway.
• If you have <6 months of cash, you are technically already dead (fundraising takes 6 months). You are a "Zombie Startup"—walking, talking, but dead inside.

3. "Not the Right Team" (23%)

• The Calculator: We penalize "Solo Founders" (it's lonely and hard) and "Co-founder Conflict." Founder divorce kills more companies than competitors do.

How to Use the Calculator

This widget is designed to be scary. It uses the visual language of a terminal flatlining.

Step 1: Choose Your Sector Some industries are deadlier than others.

• SaaS: Predictable revenue. Lower risk.
• Hardware: "Hardware is hard." High capital costs. High risk.
• Crypto: Extreme volatility. One regulation change can wipe you out.

Step 2: Input Your Runway Be honest. If revenue stopped today, how many months until you can't make payroll?

• < 4 Months: You are in the ICU.

Step 3: Confess Your Sins (Red Flags) Check the boxes that apply to you.

• Pivot #3+: If you keep changing the idea, you are flailing.
• No Tech Lead: Outsourcing your core product is a death sentence for tech startups.

Step 4: Calculate Survival Odds Hit the button.

• Green Pulse: You are "Default Alive."
• Yellow Pulse: You are in the "Trough of Sorrow."
• Red Flatline: You are a Zombie.

The 4 States of a Startup

1. Default Alive (0-30% Risk) You make more money than you spend, or you have a massive war chest. You control your own destiny.

2. The Trough of Sorrow (30-60% Risk) The initial excitement has worn off. Growth is flat. Morale is low. This is where most founders quit.

3. The Zombie (60-85% Risk) You have just enough revenue to pay the bills, but you aren't growing. VCs won't fund you. You can't sell. You are stuck in purgatory.

4. The Flatline (85%+ Risk) The end is near. You have weeks of cash left. It’s time to update your LinkedIn.

The Verdict

Failure isn't shameful. It's tuition.

But "ignoring the signs" is inexcusable.

Use the Startup Graveyard Calculator above to get an honest diagnosis. If the screen turns red, don't panic. Pivot. Cut costs. Fix the founder relationship.

You can still cheat death. But only if you know it's coming.

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Viral FAQs

Q: Can a "Zombie" startup be saved? A: Yes, but usually only by a radical change. You either need to Pivot (change the product entirely) or Recapitalize (raise money at a lower valuation). Sometimes, the best move for a Zombie is to sell the assets and move on.

Q: Why is "Solo Founder" a risk? A: Y Combinator data suggests solo founders fail more often. It’s not about skill; it’s about psychology. When things get hard (and they will), having a partner to share the burden is often the difference between quitting and pushing through.

Q: What is a "Pivot"? A: A pivot is a fundamental change in business strategy. YouTube started as a dating site. Slack started as a video game. One pivot is good. Three pivots usually means you are lost.

Q: Is "Bootstrapping" safer than raising VC money? A: In terms of control, yes. In terms of survival, it depends. Bootstrapped companies die because they run out of cash. VC-backed companies die because they run out of growth (and then VCs stop funding them).

(Disclaimer: This calculator is a heuristic tool based on general startup failure statistics. It does not guarantee the success or failure of any specific company.)